When the poll pitch is the futile and stupid gesture
It's way too early for 2024 polls to be setting this much of the narrative.
I’m just going to do a short post today, because I wrote most of what I wanted to say in my National Journal column this week. You can read that here; it’s outside the paywall until April 8. Go read it and come back.
Fun fact: I wrote the first draft of that when I was hangry after my Monday morning run. I dialed it back a little after breakfast. But really, come on. If you’re being shopped a private poll, there is a reason. Be critical.
For everyone else, be critical of what you read. If the funder of the poll isn’t disclosed and there’s just a line something like “but it wasn’t funded by a candidate!” be especially wary. It does help if you consume media that has standards around what polling they will report, but that’s a totally different can of worms that I’ll save for another time.
And in general, be wary of any polls about the election 9-18 months before any voting begins. There are a few poll-based narratives taking off that have little merit at this point:
DeSantis is up in early states.
Trump is up nationally.
Biden/Trump will be re-elected.
That last one is especially fun. There’s less reason to look at general election polling than there is to take Republican primary polling seriously.
TL;DR: It’s just too early. Opinion is fluid, and most average Americans don’t care about any of this yet. It’s spring; go enjoy the weather.