Hello friends! Apologies for the lapse in posting over the last month. I did warn you… I’ve been immersing myself in my new job, learning tons, and getting to know my colleagues, so this has gone to the backburner.
I am still writing my National Journal column, so you can find it every Tuesday. I’m pushing it out on Twitter (I will never call it “X”), and I just joined bluesky since there seems to be a strong polling community forming over there.
For this week’s column, I tackled current media polling methodologies, framed around the question of why the recent ABC News/Washington Post poll had some sort of wonky findings. I suspect it’s because the subgroups they reached using their RDD methodology were weird compared to what other polls find. And yes, it’s true that we don’t know for sure that a poll is right or wrong. But when the ratio is 1:everyone, there’s likely a reason that one looks different. I think it’s methodology. Read the column for the full explanation — well, as full as one can do in 800 words.
As for the future of this substack, I honestly don’t know how much bandwidth I’ll have to give to it moving forward. When I started it, I thought I would be consulting on my own with more “free” time, that looks very different as part of a firm.
Plus, I’ve spent a lot of time over the years putting things out into the public sphere, and I’ve just never gained the traction that others do. There are probably a lot of reasons for that, some my fault, others very much outside of my control. I have to say I am tired of playing in a field where there’s a new media darling every cycle, and it’s always a white guy. I’m finding it much more rewarding to invest internally with my new coworkers.
At any rate, thank you all for subscribing and reading. I’m really flattered that you all think my writing is worth the subscription — perhaps because I haven’t ever gained much widespread traction, I really appreciate those who do support my work. I will try to put up some posts now and then to show my appreciation for your faith in me.
Hey Natalie! I know you (probably) don't like me because of our whole poll data vs forecast arguments, but given where we align on some other issues (personal politics) I'm hopeful to maintain some form of openness.
I have a lot of respect for you, your work, even if I have some problems with the field's traditions and methods. I don't want to confuse the two.
Most of all, I respect people who can have a heated discussion and not push the block button, because I think it shows a level of intellectual honesty.
Feel free to reach out if you'd like to chat.
Some of the things I've posted, especially recently, might be of interest to you.