It's still the pandemic, stupid
Our interpretations of public opinion need to account for trauma.
We seem to have largely forgotten — in the political discourse, anyway — that we had a gigantic economic and societal and public health upheaval in 2020 and 2021. Really, also 2022. It’s actually still ongoing, but fortunately we’ve come down from the days of thousands of Americans dying per day.
Yes, I’m talking about the COVID-19 pandemic.
I know that we don’t really want to remember it, but we need to think back to just how disruptive that was. How much our lives changed. What we have and haven’t gotten back. How many people died, and how many are surviving with symptoms that won’t go away. I don’t like thinking back to March and April 2020 either. But it did change me.
It changed everyone, which is the point of my most recent National Journal column. Why on earth would we not expect shifts in how people react to the economy and the government as a result of such a transformational event? Of course people have lingering dismal views of the economy — that’s what happens when you experience trauma… the memory shapes your experience going forward, whether you consciously admit it or not.
We’d be wise to remember this when we read polls. Technically, both Donald Trump and Joe Biden were president during the pandemic, and which one you think handled it better likely depends more on your partisanship than how they handled it. But now, Biden is catching flack for the economy, since he’s the current president. As I wrote, however, that isn’t necessarily translating into Democratic losses in elections as it historically might have, because (I hypothesize) the relationship between economic views and electoral choices has changed.
Yes, there are other factors involved. Overturning Roe v. Wade and the aftermath of severe abortion bans enacted by Republicans has helped Democrats as well. And we can’t untangle any of this from the changes in our politics we’ve experienced since Trump rode down the golden escalator in June of 2015. Those things are huge factors as well. But those things are discussed. For some reason, discussions of economic views seem to mostly ignore the pandemic.
So read the column, and see what you think.
News about finding my columns!
In addition to my regular postings at National Journal, we are also reposting my columns (with permission, of course) on GQR’s website. My last couple are up — one on what has changed since Mitt Romney was the Republican presidential nominee in 2012 (spoiler: a lot), and one on why third party polling is difficult.
ICYMI, yes, I now work at a partisan firm. I’ve never hidden my politics. Some say that's a reason not to listen to me… I think it just gives you the information you need to understand my biases, where I’m coming from, and whether you want to buy my reasoning. There is no such thing as neutrality or unbiased in politics — if you’re in the field, you have opinions. Pretending you don’t is not going to fool anyone.